Look Ahead 3/10/23: RBA; JOLTS; API; Greggs; Boohoo

(Video Transcript)

A central bank affair

Hello, I'm Angeline Ong, and welcome to your Look Ahead to Tuesday, 3 October 2023. It's still a major central bank week, especially if you're an Antipodean. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were waiting on an interest-rate decision there. Cash rates are expected to remain at 4.1% as they take a wait and see stance to see how inflation is faring. Of course, the coming down and moderating.

Just showing you the Aussie dollar because, let me get a chart up here for you, because if you look at this cross, you can see that the Aussie dollar has been gaining when the Aussie central bank was pricing. However, it has weakened slightly now.

Same story as well, if you look at the New Zealand dollar, because it has weakened when the central banks mentioned that they were going to take a wait-and-see stance to see whether the interest rate hikes that were dealt early on were taking effect. Along with all this, makes China factory surveys also offering a little cheer as traders look ahead to these rate decisions.

Now, there is something else at play here. Resistance is quite stiff, as you can see there for the Kiwi at around the 6000 level. For the Aussie dollar, we are actually having a similar view there. 6500 is the first resistance point and volumes, as you can see there, are quite low.

The other issue that I was telling you about is trading, which is likely to be thin due to a market holiday in Hong Kong. Mainland China also shuts until the end of this week.

US jobs data: which trajectory will the Fed take

Now, over in the US, we have a huge amount of jobs data this week. This includes the JOLTS job openings data, followed by, of course, the Friday all-important closely-eyed jobs report. If we get a number that is quite robust, then it might further fuel hope that the Fed might stand pat on interest rates for now.

But of course, all these concerns in the markets recently, due to the fact that the Federal Reserve had signaled that there might be one more rate hike before the end of this year. And also, we've got an API crude oil inventories. This is likely to be a very interesting data point, given that we've got Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting this week.

Showing you US crude here. It has been moving higher; we've seen higher highs in the recent sessions. And recently, it did touch the $95.00 level before coming off that, of course, OPEC+ any comment about tightness of supply any comment whatsoever about Saudi Arabia and Russia extending additional supply cuts will, of course, support oil prices.

Keeping an eye on Greggs and Boohoo

And over in the UK, we've got Greggs third-quarter trading numbers and Boohoo. I want to keep an eye on Greggs for you because Greggs has been a darling of the city. However, it has come off now. If you look at the shares, there's been a high scheme in May 2023.

Greggs, as you know, is famous for its vegan sausage rolls. Consumers have also flocked to Greggs because of its cost-effective meal deals, late opening hours and, also, the loyalty app, which has helped to drive sales higher.

However, the stock has largely enjoyed quite a lot of support in the last few quarters, given the fossil-fuel crisis, it is unlikely that Greggs is going to be able to surprise very much on the upside, given it's done quite well recently.

It has even performed better than some of its peers, especially even though rising costs has hit every supplier from grocers to those that operate chains like Greggs. Also watch out for what the company does in terms of its interim dividend. Currently, it's lifted its interim dividend by 7% to 16 pence per share.

And that's it for now. For more market moving news, we'll be back on Beat the Street at 1.30pm, London time, to give you a heads up to the US trading day. IG’s Jeremy Naylor will do the same for Europe on Early Morning Call at 7.30am. Follow me on Twitter @AngelineOng and on IG.com. This is IGTV.