Look Ahead 7/9/23: China trade balance; UK house prices; US jobless claims; Direct Line
China’s trade balance figures will be key after the soft services data release. UK property investors brace for the latest Halifax house price index. Look out for US initial jobless claims and Direct Line Insurance earnings.
(Video Transcript)
Chinese exports expected to drop
Hello, I'm Angeline Ong, and welcome to your Look Ahead to Thursday, 7 September 2023.
We begin in China, which is where we started off the week, this time with August trade balance numbers. Exports expected to fall by 9.5% year-on-year and, of course, we had a huge amount of interest in China and China-related stocks earlier in the week, when we had numbers that showed that China's services sector was weakening.
This is the Hang Seng here, which has come off quite markedly since February 2021. It's fallen by around 53% from that point to around 31 October. It did try to regain its composure from October to around end January this year.
However, it failed to maintain that level, slipping and heading towards the 18,000 level. Much will depend on China's economy and also its very slow reopening, and whether or not we're going to see consumption kick back over there.
Continuing downward trajectory for UK house prices
Now, in the United Kingdom, we've got Halifax house price data to boot. This forecast is that UK house prices will fall a fourth straight month, year-on-year. No surprise, really, given how much the UK housing market has had to contend with in terms of headwinds, high interest rates, a cost-of-living crisis, as well as the shake-out still, which is ongoing after lockdown.
Other compounding factors include Brexit, which has led to higher prices in terms of getting staff and building materials as well, and the supply chain crisis. All of this is leading to a very tough time for the UK housing market, especially with high interest rates as well.
Just taking a look at cable there, because it did climb this cross between September 2022 and on to around June this year. However, it has hit a resistance point at 13,000 and is now starting to bend towards the 12,000 mark there. Much of that because the expectation is that perhaps the Bank of England is in a wait-and-see stance when it comes to any more interest rate hikes ahead.
Saudi oil supply moves under scrutiny
And in the United States, we have initial jobless claims figures and the EIA crude oil inventories as well. Oil, of course, a big focus for us at the moment as investors watch the supply moves by Saudi and also the concerns that if the Chinese economy does bounce back quite rapidly, then we could see supply and demand rise amid that tight supply picture.
Also, just a heads up, we've got Vistry out with first-half earnings. It is starting to be really quiet now on the earnings front, but we also have Direct Line Insurance out with first half numbers. And that's it for now.
For more market-moving news, I'll be back on Beat the Street at 13.30pm London time to give you a heads-up to the US trading day. And IG's Jeremy Naylor will also be on at 7.30am on Early Morning Call to give you the heads-up to the European market opening. Follow me on at IG.com and at Angeline Ong on Twitter. This is IGTV.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Start trading forex today
Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market.
- Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
- Analyse with clear, fast charts
- Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps
See an FX opportunity?
Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.
- Log in to your demo
- Take your position
- See whether your hunch pays off
See an FX opportunity?
Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.
- Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
- Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
- See and react to breaking news in-platform
See an FX opportunity?
Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.
Live prices on most popular markets
- Equities
- Indices
- Forex
- Commodities
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
