Look ahead 9/11/23: US initial jobless claims; China inflation; WH Smith, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal earnings
Market-moving events that could prompt FX volatility include US initial jobless claims, the latest inflation reading from China and what Fed chair Jerome Powell says about the future path of interest rates.
China's waning demand a worry
Hello, I'm Angeline Ong, and welcome to your look ahead to Thursday 9 November 2023. We start with China amid concerns about waning demand. From there, the consumer price index (CPI) will be one to watch.
Expectations for October, negative 0.1%, and the year-on-year producer price index expectations, therefore, negative 2.7% is the year-on-year figure expected.
In the US, initial jobless might move the dollar; we're looking at 218,000, slightly above the four-week average of 210,000. Just looking at the US dollar basket for you, the dollar might move more depending on what we hear from Jerome Powell, who speaks later on in the session.
Of course, we've already heard from Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Neel Kashkari that the central bank might have to do a bit more to cut inflation to its 2% target. Any comments on which way rates will go will likely move markets.
UK retailers battle cost-of-living crisis
On the earnings front, we still have WH Smith out with four-year earnings. This is the chain that sells everything from books to stationery to chocolates at many of the train stations and near many depots here in the UK.
What is clear, though, is that UK retailers are still fighting a cost-of-living crisis, and many expect, in the fourth quarter, consumers to consume even less. British retail sales fell more than expected. In September, shoppers delayed buying autumn things as well due to unseasonably warm weather.
But in terms of WH Smith, look out for any impact on hybrid working. And, of course, also the impact of continued strikes, although that is easing now. WH Smith shares down some 20% year-to-date.
Drugs firms look to cancer, rare disease treatments
And on the drugs front, we've got AstraZeneca out with third-quarter earnings. AstraZeneca, obviously one of those that benefited during the COVID vaccine roll-out. However, it and many others in the pharmaceutical space are looking at oncology, immunology and rare diseases: the therapies to treat these as the next cash cows.
And we also have numbers from Taylor Wimpey, Flutter Entertainment, Vistry and John Wood Group, including more to come. From Europe, Deutsche Telekom is the one to look out for, third-quarter numbers there, along with Zurich Insurance and ArcelorMittal as well.
And that's it for now. For more market-moving news, I'll be back on beat the street at 1.30pm London time to give you a heads-up to the US trading day. And my colleague Jeremy Naylor will be doing the same at 7.30am on early morning call, giving you a heads-up to the European market open. For now, though, do follow me on Twitter for more analysis @AngelineOng. This is IGTV.
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