What to expect for Greggs full-year results
Greggs is expected to deliver 11.5% sales growth to £2.018 billion in 2024, with ambitious expansion plans continuing despite fourth quarter slowdown.
Financial performance highlights
Greggs, the UK's leading bakery chain, is reporting its full-year earnings for 2024 on Tuesday 4 March, at which significant growth and strategic advancements are expected despite a still challenging UK economic environment.
For its December 2024 financial year, Greggs is expected to achieve total sales of £2.018 billion, marking an 11.5% increase from the previous year. Like-for-like sales in company-managed shops are forecast to rise by 5.5% during the same period.
However, the fourth quarter (Q4) saw a deceleration, with total sales growth of 7.7% and like-for-like sales increasing by 2.5%, reflecting subdued High Street footfall due to lower consumer confidence.
The company's year-end gross profit margin is expected to grow by 0.57% from the previous year, its pre-tax profit by 11.6% to £187.21 million and its Earnings Per Share (EPS) by 8.8% to 134.74 pence.
Expansion strategy and shop portfolio
Share trading investors will note that Greggs expanded its presence by opening a record 226 new shops in 2024.
These openings were offset by 28 closures and 53 relocations, resulting in 145 net new openings and bringing the total shop count to 2,618 by year-end.
The company plans to maintain this growth momentum with 140 to 150 net new openings planned for 2025, including 50 targeted relocations.
This aggressive expansion strategy demonstrates management's confidence in the long-term growth potential despite short-term consumer spending pressures.
Supply chain investments and operational efficiency
To support its ambitious growth plans, Greggs has secured planning permission for a new National Distribution Centre in Kettering.
The company completed the land purchase for this facility in January 2025, representing a significant step in strengthening its supply chain infrastructure.
Trading platform users should consider how these investments may impact short-term cash flow but enhance long-term operational efficiency.
These strategic initiatives are designed to support the company's continued expansion while improving stock management and distribution capabilities.
Market challenges and competitive positioning
The latter half of 2024 presented challenges for Greggs, with lower consumer confidence impacting High Street footfall and expenditure.
Despite these headwinds, the company maintained its market share through its value-for-money positioning and effective cost control measures.
Online trading participants should note that Greggs' performance has proven relatively resilient compared to some retail competitors.
The company remains confident in its ability to navigate challenging conditions through its continued focus on quality, value, and convenience.
Outlook and future growth prospects
Greggs is poised to continue its expansion and innovation strategies to strengthen its market position in 2025.
Investors using share dealing services may consider how the company's value proposition positions it well in an environment where consumers are increasingly price-conscious.
The management team has expressed confidence that their freshly-prepared food and drink offerings will continue to resonate with customers.
Industry analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Greggs' prospects, noting its track record of adapting to changing consumer trends and economic conditions.
Greggs analyst and TipRanks Smart Score ratings
According to LSEG Data & Analytics, analysts rate the Greggs share as a ‘buy’ with 2 ‘strong buy’, 8 ‘buy’, 1 ‘hold’, 1 ‘sell’ and 1 ‘strong sell’, with a long-term mean upside target pf 2,870.25p, 39% above current levels (as of 03/03/2025).
Greggs’ has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘8 Outperform’ and is rated as a ‘strong buy’ by analysts with 5 ’buy’ recommendations (as of 03/03/2025).
Technical outlook of the Greggs share price
Gregg's share price performance has shown significant volatility leading up to earnings, reflecting broader market uncertainty about AI chip demand and AI competition from China.
Greggs versus FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 comparison chart
The Greggs’ share price, down around 26% year-to-date, has fallen through its 2020-to-2025 uptrend line at 2,296p in January. It has been side-lined above its January 2,026p low since then.
Greggs monthly candlestick chart
Were a fall through the psychological 2,000p mark to ensue, the 1,921p-to-1,650p support zone would be targeted. It consists of the April-to-June 2020 highs and the October-to-November 2019 as well as the September-to-October 2022 lows .
Greggs daily candlestick chart
Resistance in case of an advance above the early February high at 2,186p taking place can be spotted between the October 2023 low at 2,244p and the breached 2020-to-2025 uptrend line at 2,296p.
Further up lurks the 8-to-9 January price gap, which occurred amid the disappointing fourth quarter trading update, at 2,510p-to-2,620p. Within it lies the November low at 2,580p.
How to trade Greggs shares:
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Remember that all trading carries risk, and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose. Consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before trading.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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