Coinbase Q4 2024 earnings preview: crypto surge boosts revenue expectations
As Coinbase prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results, the spotlight is on how the crypto market's rally will influence its revenue and investor sentiment.
When is Coinbase reporting?
Coinbase is set to release its fourth quarter (Q4) 2024 financial results on Friday, 14 February at 8.10am AEDT, after market closes.
Q4 2024 earnings expectations
- Revenue: $1.76 billion
- Revenue growth: 84.4% year-over-year (YoY)
- Earnings per share (EPS): $1.63
Upcoming results are expected to showcase robust double-digit growth across Coinbase’s core business segments - transaction revenue and subscription & services.
Highlights from the previous quarter
In the third quarter (Q3) 2024, Coinbase missed both revenue and earnings estimates, making any positive surprises in Q4 results highly anticipated to regain investor confidence.
Q3 2024 results:
- Revenue: $1.2 billion
- Revenue growth: 78.8% YoY
- Net income: $75 million
Impact of mid-November crypto rally
Coinbase’s earnings are heavily influenced by bitcoin and ethereum prices, which drive the majority of its trading revenue. Generally, rising prices in these assets lead to higher retail engagement, which translates to more trading activities and higher fees for Coinbase.
In Q4 2024, bitcoin and ethereum surged 48% and 28%, respectively, partly propelled by Donald Trump’s presidential win, which boosted optimism for a more crypto-friendly regulatory landscape in the US.
According to CoinGecko, trading volume across the top 10 centralised exchanges (CEXs) soared 111.7% in Q4 2024 compared to Q3 2024. Given this surge, the market’s 37.1% projected increase in Coinbase’s transaction revenue appears conservative, raising the likelihood of an earnings beat.
2024 total crypto market cap & trading volume chart
What to watch for
In its Q3 20024 earnings call, Coinbase expressed caution regarding its Q4 2024 outlook for subscription and services revenue, citing challenges such as a 10% decline in Ethereum prices in October and lower interest rates.
-
Impact of Ethereum price changes
Coinbase earns fees from Ethereum staking rewards, so higher Ethereum prices typically lead to larger rewards and more revenue. Although Ethereum saw nearly a 70% surge following the United States (US) elections in early November, the rally has since lost momentum, and prices have returned to September-October 2024 levels.
-
Subscription and services revenue growth
To decrease its dependence on volatile trading fees, Coinbase is aiming for stronger growth in subscription and services revenue. For Q4, this revenue is expected to grow 46.7% year-over-year, down from 66.3% in Q3. Projections beyond Q4 remain flat, indicating that investors may require further reassurance about long-term growth prospects.
Coinbase technical analysis
Coinbase’s share price appears range-bound in the near term. Its daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is flat, signalling investor indecision, while its daily relative strength index (RSI) hovers around its midline. Bullish conviction may emerge from a break above the $305 level, where both a descending trendline of lower highs and a key horizontal resistance level could be overcome.
Conversely, the $263.80 level will serve as a critical support confluence, aligning with a broader upward trendline that must hold to sustain the broader bullish structure.
Coinbase daily chart
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
Seize a share opportunity today
Go long or short on thousands of international stocks.
- Increase your market exposure with leverage
- Get commission from just 0.08% on major global shares
- Trade CFDs straight into order books with direct market access
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
