SpaceX IPO: what to know and how to buy shares
A SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO) would be one of the largest stock market launches in history. Here’s how you can invest and trade in the space exploration disruptor.
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A SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO) is easily one of the world’s mostly highly anticipated stock market launches, competing only with OpenAI and ByteDance in terms of potential popularity.
While highly speculative, retail investors who may have missed the chance to invest in the early days of the Magnificent Seven may consider a SpaceX IPO to be a similarly valuable once-in-a-generation opportunity — to invest in a business which could eventually become worth trillions of dollars.
When could the SpaceX IPO take place?
CEO Elon Musk has previously noted that a SpaceX IPO may only go ahead once the company is generating predictable revenue, though a separate IPO for its Starlink satellite internet subsidiary may be closer.
One complication with any potential IPO is that the company currently enjoys lucrative government contracts, which may become harder to acquire once it goes public. However, SpaceX is becoming so entrenched in the space industry, that this may soon no longer be a concern.
Beyond this, SpaceX as a private company is able to operate solely as it wishes, and with little transparency, whereas it would be required to put shareholder profits first as a public entity. This could represent a conflict of interests when the key plan is to colonise Mars rather than enrich shareholders.
Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell has previously suggested that the company will not go public until it is flying regularly to Mars — but the bottom line is that this ambition is hideously expensive, and the US public markets offer deep liquidity.
While the US government and institutional investors — including Alphabet — are strong backers, the financial need to launch an IPO is coming down the track. With Musk and incoming US President Donald Trump now sharing a strong personal relationship, with the billionaire financially supporting Trump’s campaign, 2025 could be the year the company announces a launch.
How to buy SpaceX shares if the company lists
If SpaceX do end up listing in the US, you can buy their shares from £0 commission with us. That's the rate if you've traded 3+ times in the previous calendar month, otherwise our standard fee is £10.
You'll be able to invest in SpaceX right away on the day of the listing.
- Do your research on IPOs
- Open a share dealing account
- Search for SpaceX on our share dealing platform
- Choose the number of shares or amount of money you wish to invest
- Place your deal
When dealing shares, you own the stock and become a shareholder in the company. You'll profit if the share price rises above the point at which you bought, or potentially from any dividends paid. You could get back less than you put in.
You can also trade the SpaceX IPO using leverage through a variety of products with us. This means you could gain or lose money quickly and could end up losing more than your initial deposit. This is higher risk and requires thorough risk management.
Read more about IPOs:
What will SpaceX be valued at and what will the share price be?
According to unnamed sources in a December 2024 Bloomberg article, SpaceX is currently the most valuable private company on Earth with a $350 billion net worth, based on a newly proposed private sale of company stock.
For context, private company stock trading platform ForgeGlobal last valued the company at $212 billion, with SpaceX last raising $1.7 billion at a $125 billion valuation back in June 2022. SpaceX has raised $11.9 billion across 30 funding rounds, though at private valuations.
Now, this latest valuation puts SpaceX roughly on par with Bank of America, though worth substantially less than the largest US tech stocks, leaving it room for significant future growth.
It’s worth noting that if SpaceX’s valuation moves similarly to fellow musk company Tesla, it will be fairly volatile. For context, Tesla stock rose from $242 on election day to $389 just over a month later — adding hundreds of billions of dollars to its market capitalisation. The SpaceX IPO and subsequent price discovery may also be unstable.
However, Morgan Stanley models that a $350 billion valuation would imply a price-to-sales ratio of 23.6 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 308 for 2024. And the investment bank notes that this could fall to a more sustainable price-to-sales ratio of 5.2 and the price-to-earnings ratio of 24 by 2030 as the company continues to grow.
Bloomberg sources from late 2023 also suggest that SpaceX generated revenue of circa $9 billion from its rocket launch and Starlink businesses in 2023 — and expects this to rise to $15 billion in 2024. Starlink is now expected to generate the majority of revenue, with one source noting that Starlink would generate $10 billion in 2024, or two-thirds of the projected total.
However, a May 2024 report from Quilty Space considered that Starlink is projected to generate $6.6 billion in hardware and subscription revenue in 2024 and reach $3.8 billion EBITDA in 2024. Publicly, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell noted in late 2023 that it had already achieved a cash flow positive quarter and would turn a profit in the calendar year.
Analysts consider that the space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035, and with huge barriers to entry, SpaceX seems strongly positioned to capture a significant portion of this growth. You might assume that SpaceX will launch with a share price in the hundreds of dollars, to better capture big tech investors.
What is SpaceX’s business model?
SpaceX has now grown into the dominant force in aerospace — and was the first privately funded outfit to send a mission to the International Space Station.
Musk’s lofty ambitions for SpaceX includes sending mankind to Mars after hugely reducing the cost of space travel. SpaceX’s partially reusable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets are revolutionary in the sector, as they massively decrease the cost of space launches.
The company’s Starship project is being exclusively developed to ferry astronauts from Earth to Mars — most recently, SpaceX ‘caught’ Starships’ rocket booster on its return to Earth — and Starship is being designed to be fully reuseable.
The company is also a global leader in satellite technology through subsidiary Starlink, which boasts thousands of satellites providing global internet coverage. At the end of September 2024, Starlink surpassed 4 million global subscribers across 100 countries — up from 3 million at the end of May.
The subsidiary has deals with major airlines including Air France and United — with Shotwell enthusing that ‘With Starlink onboard your flight, you’ll have access to the world’s most advanced high-speed internet from gate to gate, and all the miles in between.’ Well-regarded astronomer Jonathan McDowell estimates there are now 6,426 Starlink satellites in orbit.
SpaceX boasts a vertically integrated business, with most components manufactured in house, reducing costs and dependency on external suppliers. It enjoys contracts with government departments including most famously NASA and the Department of Defense, but also sports several high profile private sector clients including satellite operators SES and Iridium.
Perhaps most importantly, SpaceX is able to undercut traditional operators such as ULA and Arianespace for satellite launches due to its reusable rockets. For context, in January 2024 specialist Payload Space estimated that SpaceX was charging $260 million per mission for three manned Commercial Crew launches to the International Space Station for NASA, and just $67 million per flight for each of a dozen commercial Falcon 9 flights.
For some more perspective, consider that NASA spends circa $54,000 for every kilogram of payload sent into orbit — SpaceX spends just $150 per kilogram. NASA’s cost of launch stands at $2.2 billion, while SpaceX does the same for $10 million. SpaceX sends 135 rockets into space every year — NASA achieved the same number in 30 years.
The growth potential is inarguably enormous: if Starlink does provide global high speed internet coverage, it could potentially corner the entire market. SpaceX has the potential to dominate space tourism, lunar landings, and Mars colonisation.
It already enjoys between 60% and 70% of the global commercial satellite launch market — and as the space sector takes off, SpaceX may well enjoy the same kind of first mover advantage as Tesla enjoyed in Electric Vehicles.
Why are there SpaceX ethical concerns?
Many of the key ethical concerns around SpaceX centre around government legislation which is too outdated and too slow to keep up with the progress of the company — alongside potential monopolisation issues.
Of course, there are environmental concerns with rocket emissions in the upper atmosphere, as well as issues with space debris and biodiversity issues around launch sites. In particular, SpaceX's ambitious plans for large-scale satellite constellations contribute to growing concerns about space rubble and its potential to create collisions. And mass satellites also have a negative impact on astronomy.
Further, SpaceX dominates the low Earth orbit space, raising concerns about monopolisation, and there have also been reports on intense workloads and tight deadlines for employees, potentially compromising safety.
Then there are ethics and governance concerns: SpaceX's rapid pace outstrips existing global space governance frameworks, raising questions about accountability in the case of mistakes or crashes. Critics are also concerned about the privatisation of space, and the potential military applications of the company’s cutting-edge technology.
On a grander scale, there are also worries about the potential contamination of extraterrestrial environments and ethical questions concerning the extent to which mankind is responsible for preserving planets in their natural state. You may also consider the socio-economic dynamics of who gets to settle on Mars and under what conditions.
But this is a company attempting to make life multi-planetary — while also delivering worldwide internet connection. Big ethical questions will come with the territory.
SpaceX-related investments
While investors wait for the SpaceX or Starlink IPO, there are several alternatives to consider. You might consider exposure to the ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR), which counts SpaceX as its top fund holding and sports a reasonable 0.75% expense fee.
Another ETF where SpaceX is the top holding is the Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust PLC, but with the caveat that this ETF generally aims to invest in growth companies with a market cap below $5 billion.
Popular individual defense and aerospace stocks include Lockheed Martin and Boeing — while NASDAQ listed start-up Rocket Labs may be a higher risk choice for those wishing to focus specifically on a company dedicated to small satellite launches.
SpaceX IPO summed up
- SpaceX’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) is easily one of the world’s mostly highly anticipated stock market launches
- According to unnamed sources in a December 2024 Bloomberg article, SpaceX is currently the most valuable private company on Earth with a $350 billion net worth
- Musk’s lofty ambitions for SpaceX includes sending mankind to Mars, and hugely reducing the cost of space travel through revolutionary new rocket technology.
- The company is a global leader in satellite technology through subsidiary Starlink, which boasts thousands of satellites providing global internet coverage. At the end of September 2024, Starlink surpassed 4 million global subscribers across 100 countries
- Many of the key ethical concerns around SpaceX centre around outdated government legislation and potential monopolisation issues
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