Oil price rises on heightened Iran/Pakistan tensions while cotton and orange juice slip
Outlook on WTI, cotton and orange juice.
WTI rises on Iran/Pakistan missile hits
Front month WTI futures swiftly reversed their recent minor downtrend which took these to Wednesday’s 70.61 low as Pakistan has responded to Iran's strikes on terrorist groups inside the former with an attack of its own. Tuesday’s high and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 73.66 to 74.03 are thus back in sight. Further up lurks last week’s 75.27 high which also presents a potential resistance level. Support below Tuesday’s 71.85 low sits at Monday’s 71.38 low and the 71.33 late December low. The December-to-January uptrend line and Wednesday’s low at 70.61 to 70.50 offer further support. While the next lower current January low at 69.41 holds, a medium-term bullish reversal may unfold.
Cotton price flirts with December high
Front month cotton futures have been steadily rising since the beginning of the year and have now reached the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 83.02 which capped on Wednesday. The next higher December high at 83.17 nonetheless remains in sight. If overcome, the 85.00 region could be in focus as well. Medium-term upside pressure should be maintained while the last reaction low on the daily chart at 81.33, made on Tuesday, underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Minor support above this level can be seen at Thursday’s 82.31 intraday low and the early January 82.23 high. Tuesday’s high at 82.04 may also act as support, were it to be revisited at all.
Orange juice futures approach five-month low
Front month orange juice futures have resumed their descent and are swiftly approaching their May high and August trough at 287.24 to 287.21 which may offer interim support. If fallen through, the April peak at 280.38 would be next in line. Resistance above Thursday’s 293.31 intraday high sits at Friday’s 301.73 low. While Friday’s high at 308.90 caps, downside pressure should prevail.
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