WTI rallies on tight supplies while gold falls and orange juice stalls near all-time highs
Outlook on WTI, gold and orange juice futures ahead of US inflation data release.
WTI trades in new ten-month highs
WTI’s near 15% rally to a new ten-month high - as OPEC predicts tights supplies and as US stocks fall – is gunning for the psychological $90 mark. En route are the September, October and mid-November 2022 highs at $89.39 to $89.70. Slips should find support around the early September highs and the August-to-September uptrend line at $87.61 to $87.50. More important support comes in at the $84.39 August peak.
Gold price slips ahead of US CPI
Gold’s 2% slide from its $1,953 per troy ounce early September high is ongoing ahead of today’s widely anticipated US CPI release. A fall through Tuesday’s low at $1,908 would put the July and 25 August lows at $1,904 to $1,903 back on the map.
Resistance can be seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,921. While the next higher 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and Monday’s high at $1,931 cap, downside pressure should be maintained.
Orange juice futures trade close to their all-time record highs
On Monday front month orange juice futures briefly made a new all-time record high before stalling. The August-to-September triple peaks from $332.67 to $332.84 per 15,000 Lbs. present formidable resistance as hurricane Idalia and the spread of an incurable disease pushed prices to these lofty heights. With overall orange juice production in the US hitting its lowest levels in the past century and as orange juice stockpiles shrink to a record low in top exporter Brazil, front month orange juice futures prices remain high.
Provided that the recent highs cap on a daily chart closing basis, a slip back towards the July-to-September uptrend line at $317.50 may occur. As long as the late August and early September lows at $309.28 to $305.95 underpin, the medium-term uptrend will remain intact. Only a rise and daily chart close above Monday’s high at $332.84 would push the $350 mark to the fore.
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