Alibaba stock price faces headwinds ahead of earnings
E-commerce giant Alibaba will report on 15 August, and weaker performance is expected due to growing competition and a slowing Chinese economy.
China slowdown weighs on Alibaba
Alibaba reports earnings on 15 August. It is expected to see earnings per share rise to $2.12 from $1.41 in the previous quarter, while revenue is forecast to rise to $34.71 billion, from $30.92 billion in the final quarter (Q4) of fiscal year 2024 (FY24).
China's economic growth has been sluggish, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising just 4.7% in the quarter ending in June, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is due to a downturn in the real estate market and a slow recovery from Covid-19 lockdowns that ended over a year ago. Moreover, consumer spending and domestic consumption remain weak, with retail sales falling to an 18-month low due to deflation.
Competitors nibbling at Alibaba’s heels
Alibaba's core Taobao and Tmall online marketplaces saw revenue growth of just 4% year-on-year (YoY) in Q4 FY24, as the company faces mounting competition from new e-commerce players like PDD, the owner of Pinduoduo and Temu. Chinese consumers are becoming more value-conscious due to the weak economy, benefiting these discount e-commerce platforms.
Slowdown in cloud computing hits revenue growth
Alibaba's cloud computing business has also seen growth cool off considerably, with revenue rising by only 3% in the most recent quarter. The slowdown is attributed to easing demand for computing power related to remote work, remote education, and video streaming following the Covid-19 lockdowns.
Lowly valuation pricing in gloomy future?
Despite the headwinds, Alibaba's valuation appears compelling at under 10x forward earnings, compared to Amazon 42x. The company has also been doubling down on share repurchases and plans to increase merchant fees. However, the uncertain macroeconomic environment and mounting competition pose risks to Alibaba's future performance.
Despite the low valuation, Alibaba has an ‘outperform’ rating on the IG platform, utilising data from TipRanks:
BABA TR
Meanwhile, of the 16 analysts covering the stock, 13 have ‘buy’ ratings, with three ‘holds’:
BABA BR
Alibaba stock price under pressure
Alibaba's stock has suffered a sharp decline of 65% from levels of $235.00 in early January 2021 to around $80.00 now, while the S&P 500 has increased by about 45% over the same period. The company has underperformed the broader market in each of the last three years.
Despite this, there are signs of bullishness in the short-term. The price has risen from its April lows, forming higher lows in late June and at the end of July. Notably it rapidly shrugged off weakness at the beginning of August.
The price remains above trendline support from the April lows, and has also managed to hold above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Recent gains have stalled at the $80.00 level, so a close above this would trigger a bullish breakout.
Price chart
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Act on share opportunities today
Go long or short on thousands of international stocks with spread bets and CFDs.
- Get full exposure for a comparatively small deposit
- Trade on spreads from just 0.1%
- Get greater order book visibility with direct market access
See opportunity on a stock?
Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re on to something.
- Log in to your demo
- Take your position
- See whether your hunch pays off
See opportunity on a stock?
Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.
- Trade a huge range of popular stocks
- Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
- See and react to breaking news in-platform
See opportunity on a stock?
Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take advantage while conditions prevail.
Live prices on most popular markets
- Equities
- Indices
- Forex
- Commodities
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
