Disney struggles to sell its story
Investors remain unconvinced that Disney is a promising long-term play, even though the stock looks cheap on an earnings basis.
Disney struggles to sell its story
Despite efforts to recover from the impact of the pandemic, shareholders of Disney continue to express disappointment. One key concern is that the company's net income has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. This lack of recovery has been a cause for concern among investors.
Furthermore, the losses incurred by Disney+ and Hulu have only added to the negative sentiment surrounding the company. These streaming platforms, which were expected to be growth drivers for Disney, have not performed as well as anticipated.
However, there is a glimmer of hope as Disney recently announced the restoration of its dividend, albeit at a small scale. This move is seen as a step in the right direction and may help improve investor sentiment.
Despite these challenges, the stock price of Disney remains relatively cheap, trading at around 19 times earnings, which is similar to its valuation in 2020. This could present an opportunity for investors looking for a bargain.
Nevertheless, what the company lacks is a positive catalyst that could drive the stock price higher. Without a clear growth strategy or a significant development, it may be difficult for Disney to regain the confidence of shareholders in the near term.
Analyst ratings for Disney
Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of between ‘buy’ for Disney – 8 strong buy, 16 buy, 6 hold and 2 sell - with the mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $104 for the share, 14% above its current value as of 7 December 2023.
Technical outlook on the Disney’s share price
The Disney share price, which has risen by less than 3% year-to-date, remains in a long-term downtrend and currently trades around its 55-week simple moving average (SMA) at $92.33.
Disney Weekly Candlestick Chart
The good news for the bulls is that in line with rapidly rising US stocks in November the Disney share price has risen by around 22% from its October low at $78.73.
For the recent bullish reversal to gain traction, a rise above the 2021-to-2023 downtrend line at $95.26 and, more importantly, the November peak at $95.61 would need to be seen on a daily chart closing basis. Such a move would confirm a medium-term bullish reversal.
Disney Daily Candlestick Chart
In this scenario, the May earnings price gap to the 10 May low at $100.40 should get filled and the May peak at $103.91 be reached.
At present the 200-day SMA at $90.27 is being revisited, though, around which the Disney share price may linger for a few days. Below it good support can be spotted at the positive November earnings price gap seen between $86.94 and $84.92. This area also incorporates the July and early August lows as well as the September and October highs, making it technically significant.
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