EUR/USD consolidates as EUR/GBP and AUD/USD rally
Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD amid slowing UK inflation and unchanged Australian jobless claims.
EUR/USD falters slightly below the mid-February 2022 low at $1.128
EUR/USD ran out of steam slightly below its mid-February 2022 low at $1.128 and is currently consolidating with a slightly bearish bias. Were a drop through Wednesday’s low at $1.1175 to occur, a further slip towards the April peak at $1.1095 may ensue.
Above this week’s current high at $1.1275 lie the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-to-2022 bear market and the mid-February 2022 low at $1.128. Between this level and the $1.13 mark the currency pair may once more struggle, however.
If not, the late-February 2022 highs between $1.139 to $1.1396 could be reached.
EUR/GBP rallies to six-week highs
EUR/GBP's recovery from its £0.8504 current July low, last traded in August 2022, has now taken it to above the April-to-July downtrend line to a six-week high at £0.8701 as UK inflation slowed more-than-expected to 7.9% in June and rate hike expectations diminished.
If a daily chart close above £0.8701 were to be made, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8730 would be next in line.
Support comes in around the £0.8658 late-June high. Further minor support sits between the 5 and 22 June highs at $0.8636.
AUD/USD recovers as Australia’s jobless rate remains unchanged
AUD/USD recovered from Wednesday’s $0.6751 low as Australia’s jobless rate remains unchanged at 3.5% in June, remaining close to last October’s 50-year lows, and below market expectations of 3.6%.
The cross is now revisiting its $0.6818 May peak, an advance above which could open the way for the June and current July highs at $0.6894 to $0.6899 to be retested.
Slips should find support along the July support line at $0.6768 below which lies Wednesday’s $0.6751 low.
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