​JD Wetherspoon H1 earnings preview: will the pub giant continue its recovery?

What to expect from Wetherspoon's H1 2025 results

​JD Wetherspoon is anticipated to report a 5% increase in underlying operating profit for the first half (H1) of the 2025 fiscal year, reaching approximately £146.5 million, continuing the recovery trend seen in 2024.

​However, the company faces challenges due to rising labour costs, with annual increases expected to add £60 million starting 1 April, 2025. This significant expense is likely to impact profitability, making precise forecasting more complex. Nonetheless, JD Wetherspoon remains optimistic about achieving a "reasonable" outcome for the year.

​JD Wetherspoon's H1 2024 results and FY 2025 forecast

​In the previous fiscal year, JD Wetherspoon reported a net profit of £26.04 million for H1, slightly up from £25.20 million in the prior period. Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 3.5% to 20.7 pence.

​According to LSEG Data & Analytics, the forecast for full year earnings is revenue growth of 3.6% to £2,1 billion), pre-tax profit growth of 28.34% to £77.8 million, Earnings per share (EPS) up 4.9% to 49.10 pence and a dividend per share of 12.12 pence.

Wetherspoon's competitive positioning

​Wetherspoon's remains distinctive within the UK pub sector for its value-focused approach, with pricing typically 10-15% below the market average. This positioning has proven resilient during previous economic downturns and may provide a competitive edge in the current environment.

​The company's freehold property strategy also differentiates it from many competitors. Approximately 60% of its estate is freehold, providing both balance sheet strength and protection against rental inflation pressures affecting operators with predominantly leasehold models.

​Recent industry data indicates that the mainstream pub sector continues to see closures, particularly among independent operators struggling with increased costs. This could present acquisition opportunities for Wetherspoon's, though the company has been relatively cautious about expansion in recent years.

​Competition from other value-oriented chains remains intense, with groups like Greene King and Mitchells & Butlers also targeting cost-conscious consumers. Wetherspoon's ability to maintain its price advantage while delivering acceptable margins will be scrutinised in the results.

​JD Wetherspoon analyst ratings

​Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a consensus "moderate buy" rating and an average twelve-month price target of 765 pence, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 30% from the current share price (as of 13/03/2025).

​JD Wetherspoon has a TipRanks Smart Score of ’3 Underperform’ but is rated as a ‘buy’ by analysts with 1 ’buy’ recommendation (as of 13/03/2025).

​Overall, while JD Wetherspoon is experiencing positive sales growth, the anticipated rise in labour costs presents a significant challenge to its profitability in the upcoming fiscal year.

JD Wetherspoon technical analysis

​The JD Wetherspoon share price has been evolving within a downward trending channel since January 2024 but seems to have found short-term support at this week’s 564 pence low.

​JD Wetherspoon weekly candlestick chart

​For a medium-term bullish trend reversal to be seen, a rise and weekly chart close above the late January high at 636.5p would need to ensue.

​A slip through this week’s low at 564p would put the mid-March 2023 low at 552p and the mid-September 2022 high at 550.5p on the map.

​JD Wetherspoon daily candlestick chart

​Monday’s bounce off its 564p low has taken the JD Wetherspoon share price to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 600p which acts as minor resistance. Slightly further up the mid-point of the over year-long downtrend channel at 610p has been acting as resistance since November and may soon do so once more.

​The late December-to-January highs at 636.5p-to-639p highs need to be overcome, for a short-term bullish trend reversal to take shape.

How to trade Wetherspoon's H1 earnings

​There are several ways to approach trading Wetherspoon's earnings results, depending on your market outlook and risk appetite. Spread betting and CFD trading offer ways to speculate on share price movements in either direction.

​For those looking to take a longer-term position, share dealing provides an opportunity to buy and hold Wetherspoon shares within your portfolio. The company currently offers a modest dividend yield of around 2.03%, though capital appreciation has been the primary return driver historically.

​Market volatility often increases around earnings announcements, with options for trading platform users to implement strategies that can potentially benefit from this volatility rather than trying to predict the price direction precisely.

​Before making any trading decisions, it's advisable to conduct thorough research on Wetherspoon's business model and the broader hospitality sector. Understanding the key performance metrics like like-for-like sales growth and margin trends will help inform your trading strategy.

How to trade Wetherspoon's shares

1. ​Do your research on Wetherspoon's recent performance, competitive position, and the outlook for the UK hospitality sector.
2. ​Choose whether you want to trade or invest in Wetherspoon shares based on your timeframe and objectives.
3. ​Open an account with us if you don't already have one.
4. ​Search for "JD Wetherspoon" or the ticker "JDW" in our platform or app.
5. ​Place your trade, ensuring you have appropriate risk management strategies in place, such as stop losses, to protect against unexpected market movements.

​With trading signals available on our platform, you can also receive alerts about potential trading opportunities in Wetherspoon shares and the wider hospitality sector, helping you make more informed trading decisions.

​Remember that while Wetherspoon's earnings may create trading opportunities, all trading carries risk. Using a demo account can be a good way to test your strategy before committing real capital to a position based on Wetherspoon's H1 results.