​​​What impact may Q1 results have on the American Airlines share price?​​​

​​​When does American Airlines report earnings?

​The Nasdaq listed air carrier operator for passengers and cargo, is scheduled to report its first quarter (Q1) 2024 earnings on Thursday, 25th of April 2024.

​What to expect from American Airlines Q1 2024 results?

​The aviation industry has witnessed a myriad of challenges and transformations over the past few years, particularly with the advent and the eventual tapering off of the global pandemic. As we set our sights on the forthcoming financial milestones in 2024, American Airlines emerges as a focal point for investors and market analysts alike, keen on deciphering the trajectory of its financial performance amidst the evolving economic landscape.

​Robust earnings outlook: a closer look at the drivers

​American Airlines is anticipated to hit the runway with earnings for the Q1 of 2024. With projections indicating a revenue surge to $12.602 billion, marking an 3% YoY growth, but EPS expected to slip from $0.05 in Q4 to -$0.29 in Q1 several factors are at play.

​On the one hand there is robust demand for air travel, which has nearly reached the pre-pandemic zeniths of 2019. This resurgence is a testament to a confluence of factors including leisure and business travel revival, particularly in high-yield regions like domestic US and Latin America. Also, the stabilization of jet fuel prices offers a sigh of relief in terms of operational costs, positioning the airline for a more cost-efficient glide through 2024.

​Tailwinds and turbulence: economic influences on the flight path

​On the other hand, the spectre of economic slowdowns and inflationary pressures looms, threatening to steer consumer spending on air travel slightly off course. Nevertheless, the airline’s strategic positioning for peak travel seasons, such as spring break and the onset of summer, provides a window of opportunity to capitalize on increased travel demand, thereby bolstering revenue through heightened fares and ancillary fees.

​The forecast: clear skies ahead?

​As American Airlines ascends into 2024, the forecast looks promising with the airline poised for growth in revenue and earnings during Q1. This optimism is not without caution, as external economic forces and operational efficiencies remain pivotal to sustaining this upward momentum.

​What are the key takeaways?

• ​Revenue of $12.602 billion : +3% year-on-year (YoY)
• ​Q1 2024 earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.29 expected
• ​A consensus of analyst ratings have between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’ rating on the stock

​Trading American Airlines

​Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’ for American Airlines – 4 strong buy, 5 buy, 8 hold and 2 sell (as of 17 April 2024).

Analyst rating on American Airlines

​American Airlines' technical view

​The American Airlines share price, down around 3% year-to-date, and weighing on its $12.78 January low, remains under pressure ahead of next week’s results. A fall through and daily chart close below the $12.78 January low would engage the $11.95 late-November low, below which lies the three-year October 2023 low at $10.86.

​Were the January low at $12.78 to hold, though, and a bullish reversal take the American Airlines share price above its 10 April high at $14.15, the January-to-April highs at $15.61 to $16.15 would be back on the map.

​American Airlines daily chart