Where to next for the Nvidia share price post stellar Q4 earnings?
Nvidia has shattered analyst expectations with record-breaking quarterly results, as continued AI chip demand fuels extraordinary growth.
Record-breaking revenue and net income
Nvidia Corporation has once again demonstrated its dominance in the artificial intelligence (AI) hardware sector with outstanding financial results for the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal year 2025.
The company's performance has been propelled by the surging demand for its advanced AI chips, particularly the new Blackwell architecture, solidifying Nvidia's position at the forefront of AI innovation.
In Q4 2025, Nvidia reported a remarkable revenue of $39.3 billion, representing a 78% increase compared to the same period last year. This figure not only surpassed analyst expectations, which were set at $38.25 billion, but also marked a significant milestone in the company's financial trajectory.
Net income for the quarter reached $22.1 billion, an 80% surge year-over-year (YoY), underscoring the company's efficient operational strategies and robust market demand.
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $0.89, exceeding the projected $0.85.
Data Centre Segment: The Powerhouse of Growth
The data centre segment emerged as the cornerstone of Nvidia's growth, with revenues nearly doubling to a record $35.6 billion. This 93% increase from the previous year was primarily driven by the escalating demand for AI-driven data processing solutions. As industries across the globe increasingly integrate AI into their operations, Nvidia's data centre graphics processing units (GPUs) have become essential components for handling complex computational tasks.
Blackwell AI Supercomputers: A New Era of AI Computing
A significant contributor to the Q4's success was the introduction and rapid adoption of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell AI supercomputers. Within the first quarter of availability, Blackwell generated an impressive $11 billion in revenue, marking it as the fastest product ramp in the company's history. CEO Jensen Huang expressed enthusiasm about the market's reception, stating, "Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law."
The Blackwell architecture, named after mathematician David Blackwell, represents a significant leap in AI computing capabilities. It offers enhanced performance and efficiency, catering to the needs of modern AI applications. The architecture's design addresses the growing complexity of AI models, providing the necessary computational power to support advancements in machine learning and data analytics.
Market Outlook and Future Projections
Looking ahead, Nvidia has provided an optimistic forecast for the first quarter (Q1) of fiscal 2026, projecting revenues of approximately $43 billion. This outlook slightly surpasses analyst expectations of $42.1 billion, reflecting the company's confidence in sustained demand for its AI solutions. The continuous evolution of AI technologies and their integration into various sectors are expected to further drive Nvidia's growth in the coming quarters.
Navigating Market Challenges
While Nvidia's performance has been stellar, the company remains vigilant regarding potential market challenges. The emergence of cost-effective AI models from competitors, such as China's DeepSeek, introduces new dynamics into the AI hardware market. DeepSeek's advancements have prompted discussions about the future landscape of AI computing and the competitive pressures that may arise. However, Nvidia's commitment to innovation and its established reputation provide a strong foundation to navigate these challenges.
Additionally, geopolitical factors, including potential tariff policies, could impact Nvidia's supply chain and production costs. The company is proactively assessing these risks to mitigate potential disruptions and maintain its competitive edge in the global market. By diversifying its supply chain and exploring strategic partnerships, Nvidia aims to fortify its operations against external uncertainties.
Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment
Despite the robust financial results, Nvidia's stock experienced slight volatility in after-hours trading. Shares initially dipped by 0.5% but later rose by 2.5% as investors processed the comprehensive details of the earnings report. This fluctuation highlights the dynamic nature of the tech market and the high expectations placed on industry leaders like Nvidia but also shows that the euphoric post-earnings buying seen in previous quarters seems to have abated.
Nonetheless, since October 2022, Nvidia's stock has appreciated by 1041%, reflecting investor confidence in the company's strategic direction and market position. Over the past year the Nvidia share price has risen by 66% but year-to-date it is down by around 2% as investors keep selling some of their shares in the company to buy comparatively undervalued Asian and European technology shares instead.
Nvidia year-to-date share price versus US indices comparison chart
Technical analysis of the Nvidia share price
The Nvidia share price will remain in a long-term uptrend as long as it is supported by its early February low at $113.01.
Having said that, Nvidia stock looks to be medium-term capped by its November to January highs at $152.89-to-$153.13.
Nvidia weekly candlestick chart
As long as the June 2024 peak at $140.76 and the current February high at $143.44 aren’t overcome, further range trading seems to be on the cards.
Support can be spotted between the mid-December low at $126.86, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $126.40 and this week’s low at $124.44.
Nvidia daily candlestick chart
Were support at $124.44 to give way, the 2024-to-2025 tentative uptrend line at $116.71 would likely be revisited and probably the early February low at $113.01 as well.
For the Nvidia share price to make a new record high, it needs to in the first instance exceed its mid-February high at $143.44 on a daily chart closing basis.
How to trade Nvidia following earnings:
- Research how the results impact the company's growth trajectory
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Remember that tech stocks can remain volatile even after strong earnings reports, and all trading carries risk. Consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before trading.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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