Skip to content

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Palladium price: could the bubble have popped for good?

Palladium prices have declined over recent weeks. After seven months of gains, has the bubble popped for the precious metal?

Mining Source: Bloomberg

The palladium price has been a hot topic over the past six months, where a tightening supply/demand dynamic helped push the lesser known commodity through platinum and gold to take the top spot as the most precious of the common precious metals. A 95% rise for palladium came to an abrupt end three weeks ago, with the metal losing 14% in that period.

With the price having consolidated over the past two weeks, traders are understandably keen to understand whether this is the beginning of the next leg higher or if further downside is around the corner.

Why did palladium rise and then fall?

Palladium enjoyed a remarkably consistent seven-month period since the lows set in August 2018. Much of this has been attributed to the tightening demand/supply dynamic, as production failed to keep up with a sharp rise in demand globally. One of the key roles for palladium is to reduce car emissions as a catalytic converter. With growing regulations over emissions, car manufacturers are increasingly turning to palladium in a bid to bring their products in line. This growing demand was not matched by a rise in production, with the resulting squeeze providing a sharp upswing in prices.

Could we be set for further losses?

The automotive sector remains a key source of demand, yet it is that demand which markets are worrying about. Fears over weaker auto sales have hurt palladium hard, with worries over the effect of a slowing global growth picture. We are also seeing a substantial shift towards electric cars, which in the long term could decimate demand for palladium. Furthermore, with palladium overtaking the price of Platinum, there is also a case for car producers shifting their materials towards a lower cost input.

In any case, the demise of car manufacturing and emissions control is not quite upon us yet, with the current slump likely to be a case of the market coming back into a respectable level after an incredible seven months.

Palladium technical analysis

The daily chart highlights the recent slide, with the price in consolidation mode over the past fortnight. However, it is clear that the creation of lower highs and lows have still been established, pointing towards further downside to come.

Palladium daily chart
Palladium daily chart

The intraday chart highlights the recent rally into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with price currently respecting trendline support. A short position looks attractive from a deep retracement, with a bullish outlook only coming about with a break through $1445. Look out for a break below $1370 to provide a bearish confirmation signal.

Palladium 1hr chart
Palladium 1hr chart

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

React to volatility on commodity markets

Trade commodity futures, as well as 27 commodity markets with no fixed expiries.1

  • Wide range of popular and niche metals, energies and softs
  • Spreads from 0.3 pts on Spot Gold, 2 pts on Spot Silver and 2.8 pts on Oil
  • View continuous charting, backdated for up to five years

1In the case of all DFBs, there is a fixed expiry at some point in the future.

See opportunity on a commodity?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Try a risk-free trade
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See opportunity on a commodity?

Don’t miss your chance. Upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • Get spreads from just 0.3 points on Spot Gold
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See opportunity on a commodity?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Equities
  • Indices
  • Forex
  • Commodities


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Sunday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.


For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of spread betting and CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.