Early Morning Call: USD at 1-year low after more soft US data while gold nears record high
US equity markets rose in Thursday’s session, as the dollar continued to weaken after the release of a couple of US indicators.
USD continues to weaken
US equity markets rose in Thursday’s session, as the dollar continued to weaken after the release of a couple of US indicators.
After US CPI on Wednesday, US producer price index for March, released yesterday, dropped the most since April 2020, while initial jobless claims rose more than expected. As the US dollar weakens, gold is on track for a second consecutive week of gains.
Now the market awaits US retail sales at 1.30pm. Economists anticipate the index to fall by 0.4% in March month-on-month (MoM). It will be followed at 2.15pm by industrial production, forecast to rise 0.2% in March compared to February, and Michigan consumer sentiment which should remain at 62 in April.
Asia-Pacific indices followed the US lead overnight and European equity markets opened higher this Friday.
US earnings
US earnings will be the main focus, with reports expected from three of the largest US banks.
JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank by assets, is scheduled to release its first quarter (Q1) earnings before the US market opens. The market expects the bank to post earnings of $3.41 per share, an increase of about 24% on the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is forecast to rise 14% to $36.13 billion.
As ever, forecasting for the months to come will be key. As the economy is expected to slow later this year, investors will be particularly focused on the amount banks will set aside to cover potential loan losses. In the case of JPMorgan, analysts anticipate a provision for credit losses in the region of $2.25bn.
The flow of deposits will be also closely watched. With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, we saw deposits leaving smaller regional banks for larger ones. But since the same big banks agreed to rescue First Republic Bank, concerns appeared on whether the crisis that hit regional banks had spread to the broader banking system.
Citigroup is also set to report its quarterly earnings before the opening bell. Earnings are expected at $1.70 per share, on revenue of just over £20bn, and Wells Fargo is forecast to post earnings of $1.12 per share on revenue of $20.12bn.
Elsewhere on the equity market, Superdry says it is considering an equity raise, and has withdrawn its profit guidance for the current year of “broadly breakeven”.
Boeing, meanwhile, announced late last night it is halting the production of some 737 aircrafts over supplier issues.
Commodities
On the commodity market, WTI and Brent are poised to post a fourth straight week of gains.
Traders will remain attentive to the evolution of coffee prices. The coffee rally continues as traders express concerns about weather conditions in Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer. London robusta coffee now trades at 11 1/2 year highs.
The market has so far been supported by tight supplies, and there are now concerns that dry conditions in Vietnam could dent the outlook for the 2023-24 crop.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Start trading forex today
Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market.
- Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
- Analyse with clear, fast charts
- Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps
See an FX opportunity?
Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.
- Log in to your demo
- Take your position
- See whether your hunch pays off
See an FX opportunity?
Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.
- Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
- Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
- See and react to breaking news in-platform
See an FX opportunity?
Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.
Live prices on most popular markets
- Equities
- Indices
- Forex
- Commodities
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.