EUR/USD and GBP/USD stall while NZD/USD finds support ahead of US Q1 GDP
Outlook on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD ahead of preliminary US quarter one GDP release.
EUR/USD’s advance runs out of steam around the $1.1075 mid-April high
EUR/USD’s rally, on hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) council members on Monday calling for a 50 basis point (bp) rate hike at the next committee meeting, was briefly extended to a 13-month high at $1.1095 on Wednesday before the cross gave back some of its recent gains ahead of Thursday’s preliminary US quarter one (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) data.
While the $1.1075 to $1.1095 zone caps, a slip back towards the psychological $1.10 mark and the March-to-April uptrend line at $1.0986 may unfold.
As long as the next lower Tuesday low at $1.0965 holds on a daily chart closing basis, the January 2022 low and early-March 2022 high at $1.1121 to $1.1122 remain possible upside targets. Support below $1.0965 can be found at the $1.0929 late-March high and also at last week’s low at $1.091.
GBP/USD struggles to make headway
GBP/USD’s attempt to reach its early-April high at $1.2525 faltered at Wednesday’s high at $1.2515 amid stronger-than-expected US manufactured durable goods orders which rose by 3.2% in April compared to a month ago. Further range trading below the currency pair’s ten-month high at $1.2546 thus remains at hand.
The $1.2525 to $1.2546 current-April peaks would need to be exceeded for the next higher-May 2022 peak at $1.2667 to be in focus. Slips should find support along the March-to-April uptrend line at $1.2422. While the cross continues to be propped up by the next lower $1.2368 to $1.2345 mid- to late-April lows, further upside may eventually still be seen.
Only if the $1.2345 level were to give way on a daily chart closing basis would a top be formed with the mid-February high and early-April low at $1.2275 to $1.227 as well as the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.2204 being back in view.
NZD/USD tries to stabilise near March trough
NZD/USD has so far slid to $0.6112 as New Zealand business mood drops to a three-month low with the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) business outlook index slipping to -43.8 in April from -43.4 in the previous two months. The latest figure marked the 22nd straight month of negative readings.
Nonetheless the cross is trying to find support slightly above its $0.6085 March low and attempts to heave itself back above the 200-day SMA at $0.6161, a rise above which and Tuesday’s high at $0.6187 would have short-term bullish implications and could lead to the 55-day SMA at $0.6217 being reached.
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