Euro price action set-up: GBP, JPY, USD

The euro’s rally against the US dollar could be stalling as it runs into a stiff hurdle even as expectations for further tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) grow.

Expectations of further interest rate increases by the ECB have risen as the concerns regarding the banking sector have eased. Moreover, ECB commentary has been hawkish recently – German central bank chief Joachim Nagel said ECB needs to raise rates as rapid price growth was at risk of getting entrenched.

French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said there is room for rate hikes in coming meetings, echoed by ECB chief economist Philip Lane.

EUR/USD weekly chart

Euro area core inflation hit a record high of 5.7% in March and could still rise further before peaking. Long-term inflation expectations in the Euro area rose to a one-month high. As a result, markets are currently pricing in about 3 ECB rate hikes of 25 basis points each by September, and fully priced in for a 25-basis point hike at the next meeting.

At the same time, markets are pricing in an 84% chance for a 25-basis points hike by the US Fed in May.

EUR/USD daily chart

_{Note: In the above colour-coded chart, blue candles represent a Bullish phase. Red candles represent a Bearish phase. Grey candles serve as Consolidation phases (within a Bullish or a Bearish phase), but sometimes they tend to form at the end of a trend. Note: Candle colors are not predictive – they merely state what the current trend is. Indeed, the candle color can change in the next bar. False patterns can occur around the 200-period moving average, or around a support/resistance and/or in sideways/choppy market. The author does not guarantee the accuracy of the information. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Users of the information do so at their own risk.}

Better-than-expected China GDP data has supported EUR given the strong manufacturing sector linkages with the world’s second-largest economy. The economy grew 4.5% on-year in the January-March quarter, well above 4% expected, and 2.9% in the previous quarter.

EUR/USD: Uptrend in place, but some signs of fatigue

On technical charts, EUR/USD’s trend on the daily charts remains up, as the colour-coded candlestick charts (based on trending/momentum indicators) suggest. The rebound last month from near-strong support at the January low of 1.0480 has kept intact the higher-top-higher-bottom pattern since September.

EUR/USD 240-minute chart

Having said that, EUR/USD faces tough resistance at the early February high of 1.1035, not too far from the 200-week moving average (now at about 1.1200). A negative divergence (rising price associated with flattening 14-week Relative Strength Index) on the weekly charts suggests EUR/USD’s month-long rally is losing steam.

Still, the upward pressure is unlikely to ease while the pair holds above the 1.0800-1.0900 area on the 240-minute charts.

EUR/JPY: barrier ahead

EUR/JPY’s break this month above key resistance on a horizontal trendline from early March (that came at about 145.50) confirms that the minor trend is up within the overall upward-sloping channel since May 2022. However, unless the cross breaks above the October high of 148.40, the broader trend is at best sideways to marginally up.

Subsequent resistance is on the upper edge of the channel (now at about 150.50).

EUR/JPY daily chart

EUR/GBP: boxed in a range

EUR/GBP has essentially been range bound since the start of 2023. The upper edge of the range is defined by a horizontal trendline around 0.8900, while the lower edge of the range is a horizontal trendline from January at about 0.8700, near the 200-day moving average.

Any breakout from the range could lead to a move of 0.0200 (the width of the range) in the direction of the breakout.

EUR/GBP daily chart