Look ahead: China Q4 GDP growth rate; US retail sales; UK CPI; Alcoa; Just Eat Takeaway.com
After big US bank earnings, the focus turns to main street with Alcoa reporting. Just Eat Takeaway.com updates investors on trading in a week when we will also hear from Deliveroo.
Plus, US retail sales, UK inflation, and growth data from China could prompt volatility in the FX markets.
(Partial Video Transcript)
China Q4 data incoming
Hello, I'm Angeline Ong and welcome to your "Look ahead" to Wednesday, the 17th of January. Now we start with China. The key indicator to look out for there is the Q4 GDP growth rate, retail sales numbers and also industrial production and fixed assets investment as well. But is the GDP growth rate will be the key one to watch because many market watchers who were expecting that big reopening from China, they're now starting to realise that actually China seems to be prioritising stability over growth and really the big reopening wasn't on their cards at all possibly.
UK data and robust Christmas grocery sales figures
From the UK, we've got the consumer price index, producer price index numbers as well, and also the retail price index. So we've heard from many grocers out of the UK recently, and it seems to be a robust Christmas that most grocers like Sainsbury's and Tesco's have had, but they've seen strength in the Christmas food front. It's been rather weak on the general merchandise. Also watch out for the CPI because that will give us clues as to what the Bank of England might do if the Fed cuts interest rates, and the Bank of England, certainly the expectation is it will hold or keep its rate steady for longer than most, even after the Fed does cut.
US data analaysis
Speaking of the Fed, we've got retail sales figures out, import and export prices, industrial production and that NAHB housing market index. The big one, of course, is retail sales and the housing market data, which will give us a sense of the consumer strength. So just looking at the US 500, like many of the other indices, it's seen that big rally from October onwards. And then we also saw that Santa really rally after the Fed pivot, although we're seeing a bit of a consolidation phase at the moment and it is currently not yet able to punch through that resistance level at around 4.799. But what the Fed does in terms of interest rates will be key to how these indices perform. And as I mentioned earlier, we are the market, rather, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, still expecting a cut in March, but the expectation has been weakening for that time frame recently, given we've had robust labor signals and also stickier than expected, or rather hotter than expected, inflation recently out of the US.
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