Look ahead: German retail sales, eurozone CPI & US jobs
Low level corporate activity once again kicked into the long grass by the economic data, which begins with German retail sales.
With inflation creeping up again in the German economy it’s expected that we’ll see this retail sale number record a contraction as consumers feel the pinch. Eurozone inflation data is also expected and with that German number up economists are considering the upside risk to this eurozone number. UK sees the Halifax house price index published and there’s a drop forecast, but still house prices are keeping up well but estate agents will say this is due to the lack of supply. Then the big pivot point on the day, the US jobs data, non-farm payrolls (NFP) looking for 168,000 jobs created in December. With a robust number on ADP private payrolls, there’s doubtless upside potential for this NFP release. The the one corporate report worth mentioning is Constellation Brands, before Wall Street cranks up for its trading day.
(AI Video Summary)
Lowdown on the DAX 40
Today's "Look ahead" to Friday 5 Januray 2024 gives an update on the financial happenings in Germany and the UK. It mentions that Germany's economy is in a downturn, which could cause their stock market, called the DAX 40, to fall even more. To take advantage of this, some traders might "short" the DAX, which means they make money when it goes down. The target price for this trade is around 16.044.
UK house price data
In the UK, there will be data released about house prices. It's expected that these prices will decrease by about 0.4% compared to last year. This could affect a stock market index called FTSE 350, which includes big companies that build houses. If house prices go down a lot, these companies might start losing money.
European consumer prices
In Europe, there will also be information about consumer prices. Experts think that prices will go up because of higher inflation in Germany. This might affect people trading euros against the US dollar. Right now, some traders are thinking of buying euros because they think the US dollar will weaken. The support level for this trade is at 108.82.
US jobs data to be released
Next, there will be data released about jobs, trades, and factory orders in the US. If job numbers turn out to be better than expected, it could have a positive impact on the stock market. However, the unemployment rate is expected to go up a little, and workers' earnings will probably increase by 0.3% month-to-month and 3.9% compared to last year.
USD/JPY trade news
There's also some news about the USD/JPY trade, which has been going up for three days. This is because people think that the Bank of Japan might make it harder for businesses to borrow money. This could be good for the Japanese yen.
Lastly, there will be reports about a company called Constellation Brands. If they have positive earnings, it could cause their stock price to go up to around $250. All of these events and information might affect the European markets on the last day of the trading week.
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