Rightmove: UK house prices most sluggish since 2008

That’s according to the property website Rightmove which says its latest House Price Index showed the typical value of new seller listings rose by 0.5% on a monthly basis at the start of October to £368,231. It is the smallest increase in its October report in 15 years. The average increase at this time of year is 1.4%. This means that prices are down 0.8% annually. Additionally, the report says that prices are being underpinned by the lack of new supply which is down 17% on this time last year.

(Video Transcript)

UK house prices

UK house prices are rising at the slowest annual pace at this time of year since the financial crisis. Back in 2008. That being said, it's not being taken too badly by the sector overall. Clearly it's rising interest rates. Clearly it's consumer confidence. Clearly it's worries about the outlook and the fact that we've seen house prices rise so much over the last two years or so, especially since COVID money came into the market and encouragement from government to keep the consumer spending.

The C350 Household Goods and Home Construction Index

Let's take a look at what this all means for the budget C350 Household Goods and Home Construction Index, which is where some of those big house builders are. You can see that technically speaking, we have a red candle they trade. That being said, the stock is actually up half of 1%. The reason was red candles because a little bit of a gap up. But interestingly, I'm seeing technically this rising line of support holding, which is interesting.

And that is only a technical move If we do get a count close below that, I suspect we could well end up then going all the way down to this nine for 17 level, which are the lowest that we had back on the 7th of July. And that was at the height of concerns about the upward movement, interest rates. You can see over the longer term, this red blob here is the COVID lows and we're well below that. And in fact, these lows down here back in October 2022 were the lowest point. The house prices hit since the 2013 year. So we've got a way to go before we get down to those levels.

The interest rates

But I think technically there's a potential to break lower if we see interest rates holding at these recent highs for any length of time. And that is the worry. And that well could mean we see some of these big house builders with declines further on down from where we are. A little bit of a rise today if about developments, but this might at 395 for company trading for 20 divided 395 looks vulnerable technically. And if we get a candle close below that, the next line of support is then potentially all the way down at these lows that we had here down in October 2022 at 313 pence. Just want to show you what else is happening with one other house. But this is possible. Same sort of price action.

You can see the way in which this move is. It's like a bouncing ball away from this line of support. But currently trading at £10.26. I think this line at 953 looks vulnerable in the longer term. You've got to kind of place below that and that's levels that you haven't seen for Persimmon since March 2013. I think the housing market generally is looking vulnerable.