Tasty Live on short USD going into 2024
After one of the lightest days in recent history on Tuesday, with Europe out for a four-day weekend, Tom Sosnoft, from Tasty Live joins IGTV for a look at the short dollar trade that’s developing.
(Partial Video Transcript)
Futures market hots up
As we take a look at what's happening in the markets as, between this period of, between Christmas and New Year, it's traditionally a period of light volumes. We're joined now by Tasty Live's Tom Sosnoff, who's with us now.
JN: Tom, we were talking before we went to air about yesterday's trade on the US market. Much of Europe was out yesterday, of course, because of this long extended weekend we have over here on this side of the Atlantic, but I know you endured one of the lightest volume days in history.
Talk us through what happened and your play for 2024.
TS: Well, it was kind of crazy yesterday. We've been very busy. The derivatives markets have been almost, I would say, 97% derivative. So the options markets, the futures markets have been really busy.
And all of a sudden yesterday, I mean, maybe it's because Europe was closed, maybe it was just because a hangover from Christmas here on Monday, but Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) volume was under 30 million contracts. You know, we hit almost 70 million contracts just a couple of weeks ago.
S&P trade half of daily volume
And futures volume was the lightest I'd seen. I think the S&Ps yesterday only traded, I want to say 600,000 cards, which is, which is about half of the normal daily volume. That was like a holiday day yesterday. So I don't read much into it. We're at record highs.
It's funny here, everybody is, you know, riding this wave and there's a little bit of piling ongoing right now. There's a little bit of desperation in people trying to play catch up. But this market, you know, every single one of our indices is at record highs.
And so, yeah, I kind of feel like there's a lot of risk right now. And getting ready for 2024, we're leaning, I mean, on the broad market. I can speak my own position: I'm leaning a little bit short here, and kind of thinking that the NASDAQ might pull back a little bit, at least, if I'm going to buy anything, I want to do it from lower prices.
JN: Just bringing up a chart of the NASDAQ, just to put this into some sort of context, we are brushing up against those record highs that we had, when we look back on the market that we've got now record highs on from those highs we had back 24 months ago.
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