Trade of the week: long AUD/USD
We would like to go long AUD/USD at $0.6225 with a stop loss below the February low at $0.6080, and an upside target in the $0.6800 region, as we believe that a long-term bottom is in the process of forming.
(Partial video transcript)
Previous trading outcomes
Axel Rudolph: Hello and welcome to "Trade of the week" on Monday 3rd March, 2025. Let me begin by looking at the last month and, unfortunately, we were right on three calls. We went short the Volatility Index, the VIX, we also went short the USD/JPY currency pair. And then, as you can see on this chart, last week we went short, as an idea anyway, on the Nasdaq 100. And all these trades would have made us a lot of money, but we didn't get into them.
And the reason we didn't is because I was waiting for a minor bounce so that my risk would be smaller. But this really, really means that, and I want to reiterate this: you don't trade setups like that. This is not a copy-trade system that I'm doing every Monday at 10am. And that's not what I trade either. I don't trade any of these because trading doesn't work like this, where you have a certain time, a certain day where you just come up with an idea.
But, it's more to do with education of how you manage trades, how to put trades on and things like that. So with regards to these last three "Trades of the week" in February, which would have made us a lot of money, and which we didn't get into, basically what we could have done, for example, is put half of the position on and then the other half, where I said, to get in, for example. Or you can do a different variations of it. So, just to be absolutely clear, these are not copy-trade systems, for those of you didn't get into those trades and are now getting frustrated.
This week's trading opportunity
So, let's look at this week's idea. And basically, what I thought is, perhaps because my view is still long term bearish actually on the US dollar, I think that the US dollar strength that we've seen over the last few months is fading, even though last week it picked up again on the volatility that we saw to do with Trump and, you know, the US economy actually also not doing as great as we initially thought. And you can see here that the AUD/USD has come off very significantly.
But, from a longer term perspective, yes, we are still in a downtrend. But since we broke up above these previous highs here in mid-January, for me, a bottoming formation has been formed. And the same happened on the GBP/USD. And the same happened again on the EUR/USD. So for that reason, I still want to be long and I want to use this retracement to now go long the AUD/USD with a stop-loss below the February low and an upside target probably around the $0.68 area, or even higher than that.
So, today's "Trade of the week" is to go long the AUD/USD with a stop-loss below the February low, which is around $0.6080, let's say, and with an upside target of around $0.68.
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