UK in a technical recession
GDP, in the UK, contracted 0.3 per cent in the final three months of last year compared with the previous quarter, following a 0.1 per cent decline between July and September.
In 2023, the economy largely stagnated as it grew only 0.1 per cent. This was well below the 2.5 per cent expansion registered in the US, and weaker than the 0.5 per cent growth of the eurozone. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the reaction for sterling, under pressure across the board. However, some economists are confident that there are signs the UK economy is turning a corner. It’s assumed that growth will strengthen over the next few years, wages are rising faster than prices, mortgage rates are down and unemployment remains low.
(AI Video Summary)
The UK economy
The UK is in a tough spot economically. The country's economy has shrunk for two consecutive quarters, which means it is officially in a recession. In the last quarter of the year, the economy contracted by 0.3% and in the previous quarter, it had negative growth of 0.1%. This is not good news for the Chancellor's plans to boost the economy, and it could also affect the upcoming elections.
The UK's growth rate
While the UK's growth rate for the whole year was only 0.1%, the US grew by 2.5% and the euro zone by 0.5%. But there is some hope for the UK. There are signs that the economy is starting to improve, with wages rising, mortgage rates going down, and unemployment rates staying low. These positive factors suggest that the economy will get stronger in the future.
The British pound
However, investors in the market are not feeling very confident right now. The GBP has lost value against the euro and the USD. This decline in the pound's value has continued even after the recession data was announced.
GBP/USD
If we look at a chart of the GBP/USD we can see that it is hovering just above a level of support at 125.18. This means that the pound's value has been consistently going down, which shows that the market is worried about the UK economy.
So, while there is hope for the UK's economic recovery in the future, the confirmation of a recession has raised concerns about what lies ahead. The market's reaction has been negative, with the pound losing value against major currencies like the euro and the dollar. The situation is uncertain, and traders are keeping a close eye on the economy to see how it develops.
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