US earnings forecasts: Netflix Q3 results preview

Key takeaways

1. Netflix's Q3 2023 earnings are expected to show a year-over-year revenue increase of 7.69% and an EPS increase of 12.71%
2. Netflix has expressed confidence in its financial outlook due to the successful implementation of paid sharing, which is expected to drive accelerated revenue growth in the second half of 2023.
3. While revenue growth is expected to be driven by growth in average paid memberships, the average revenue per user (ARM) is anticipated to be flat or slightly down year over year.
4. Netflix expects Q3 operating income of %1.9bn up from $1.5bn in the same period last year, and an operating margin of 22%, up from 19% in Q3 2022.
5. While public sentiment is considered bullish, there has been some net selling of the stock by hedge funds and company insiders over the last quarter.

When is Netflix earnings date?

Netflix Inc., the Nasdaq listed, world leading internet television network will report its third quarter earnings for 2023 (Q3 2023) on Wednesday the 18th of October 2023, after market close.

Netflix results Q3 2023 earnings preview, what does ‘The Street’ expect?

A consensus of estimates from Refinitiv arrives at the following expectations for the Q3 2021 Netflix results:

• Revenue $8.535bn (+7.69% y/y)
• EPS of $3.49 (+12.71% y/y)

Netflix Inc. (NFLX) has recently offered a glimpse into its financial forecast for the third quarter of 2023. As a leading player in the entertainment industry, the company's primary financial metrics include revenue growth and operating margin, which measures profitability. The company's objective is to accelerate revenue growth, expand operating margins, and deliver increasing positive free cash flow. Markets are likely to judge the upcoming results against expectations of these metrics as well as subscriber numbers.

The company has expressed increased confidence in its financial outlook due to the successful implementation of paid sharing. This is expected to lead to accelerated revenue growth in the second half of 2023 as the company expands this initiative across almost all remaining countries and continues to see steady growth in its ad-supported plan.

The forecast for Q3 reveals an expected revenue of $8.5B, which is a year over year increase of 7% on both a reported and currency neutral basis. This is a slight acceleration from the Q2’23 currency neutral revenue growth rate of 6%. The revenue growth in Q3 is expected to be driven by growth in average paid memberships.

However, the currency neutral ARM (average revenue per user) is expected to be flat or slightly down year over year, due to the fact that the company is lapping price increases from 2022 and hasn’t had price increases in its largest revenue markets since the first half of 2022. Revenue from advertising and extra member features are not yet material enough to offset these factors.

In terms of net additions, Q3’23 paid net adds are anticipated to be similar to Q2’23 paid net additions. The company expects that its revenue growth will accelerate more substantially in Q4’23 as it further monetizes account sharing between households and steadily grows its advertising revenue.

On the profitability front, Netflix expects Q3 operating income of $1.9bn up from $1.5B in Q3’22, and an operating margin of 22%, up from 19% in the same period last year. The company is targeting a full year 2023 operating margin of 18%-20%, based on F/X rates as of January 1, 2023, which is an increase from 17.8% in FY22.

Netflix's is focused on driving growth and increasing profitability through leveraging strategies such as paid sharing and advertising.

How to trade the Netflix Q3 2023 results

IG’s TipRanks smartscore (available on the IG platform) suggests that Netflix is a ‘moderate buy’ with a long-term price target of $470.43 a share, as of the 11th of October 2023.
Public sentiment is considered bullish although over the last quarter there has been some net selling of the stock by hedge funds and company insiders.

Eighty six percent of IG clients with open positions on Netflix (as of the 11th of October 2023) expect the share price to rise in the near term, while fourteen percent of IG clients with open positions on the company expect the price to fall.

The share price of Netflix is currently testing a confluence of trend line, horizontal and 200-day simple moving average (blue line) (200MA) support. Provided that the price stays above this confluence of levels the longer-term trend is considered up.

Trend followers might prefer to see some bullish momentum in line with the longer-term uptrend before looking for long entry. A break or close above the 389.10 level, should it occur, might provide this momentum confirmation. In this scenario, 410.15 becomes the initial upside resistance target while a close below the 366.15 level might be used as a stop loss indication for the setup (should it manifest).