US jobs preview: watching EUR/USD ahead of jobs reports
As always, the first week of the month is of interest to foreign exchange traders with the release of US job reports.
The private payrolls from ADP is forecast to have created 205,000 jobs in March, after 242,000 in February.
On Thursday we see weekly jobless claims and then, the big one, the non-farm payrolls number on Friday. Early expectations point to 238,000 jobs filled, after 311,000 in February.
Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.6%, and average hourly earnings to rise by 4.3% year-on-year.
(Video Transcript)
US jobs data
Now, like every beginning of each month of the year, we await the US jobs data, which could well be another pivotal point for the foreign exchange markets.
This week, after a positive start to the US dollar because of concerns about inflation, on Wednesday we get the ADP employment change. This is the US private sector payrolls that's forecast to have created 205,000 jobs in March after 242,000 in February.
Thursday, we'll get the weekly jobless claims and March non-farm payrolls (NFP) are out on Friday. Early expectations for NFP point to 238,000 job creations, after 311,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6% and average hourly earnings to rise by 4.3%.
EUR/USD
The currency of choice to watch out for, although it's a long way from where we are at the moment on this Monday, will be the euro/dollar trade. Euro/dollar is currently trading at 1.11 at this line of support, down at 10714, which would be weakness for the euro if we saw anything like any more weight being added to the US dollar.
This will be the line of support to watch out for if indeed we get a turn around to be, to see some dollar weakness. You'll see a break, I guess, of this area of 10936. But a lot of water to pass over the bridge before we get to that point on Friday for non-farm payrolls.
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