Week Ahead starting 23/10/23: a packed corporate and economic agenda

(Video Transcript)

A bumper week of financial news and data

Welcome. Let's take a look at the Week Ahead, and it is packed to the gunnels with corporate and economic news. Headlines coming through in just a couple of minutes’ time. We'll be talking to Tony Batista from tastylive, but let's first take a look at the agenda for the economic diary for the week starting Monday 23 October 2023.

It's relatively light, we've got the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index and also Euro Zone consumer confidence flash data, but things start to pick up as we move further on into the meat of the week. In the early trading part of the day, we get Japanese manufacturing service, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slash data.

Also, that data as well coming through from much of the Euro Zone, in the UK and later on in the day, the PMI data out in the States as well. We get German GFK consumer confidence as well, and the UK unemployment rate.

Remember, last week we had a flash look at the earnings, the average earnings, which is keeping up with inflation. We get the unemployment rates this coming week, also CBI industrial trends orders.

Out of the United States, the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil inventories, oil is going to be a big feature going into this next week, as it has been in this last week or so. Wednesday 25 October 2023, we begin, first of all, in the Australian economy with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) releasing the trimmed mean CBI data.

As we see that oil price rise, we know that inflation is going to be affected by that. I'd be interested to see just what the RBA has to say about that. We know that Germany, the economy there is in a bit of a dark place at the moment, and that's expected to be on the way down as well.

On Wednesday, we get Canadian Bank of Canada interest rates as well. We are expecting no change at 5%. Euro Zone European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, 26 October, again, no change in interest rates expected.

But do watch out for both the Bank of Canada and the ECB, again, on any commentary around inflation, which, as I said, is likely to be continued to see high numbers because of that rise in the price of oil. And this is affecting growth as well.

US Q3 snapshot due

We get US third-quarter growth data out on Thursday. It's the first snapshot of what's happening in Q3. So that'll be interesting to get dual goods orders as well. Wholesale inventories, the weaker jobless claims and pending home sales.

And let's wrap up the week and take a look at what else is happening in France. Third-quarter GDP growth numbers there as well. That's the first look at Q3. French growth, consumer prices as well in the French economy. And wrapping up the week on the corporate, the economic agenda in the US, core PCE, personal income and spending, and the Baker Hughes oil rig count.

Now, as promised, off now to tastylive and Tony Baptiste to join us. Tony, this is one of the big subjects that everybody's talking about at the moment. As I said, it's feeding through as well, I guess, into the outlook for inflation. What's your take on it at tastylive and your feeling about how to trade these markets?

‘Oil is the biggest inflation number’

TB: Thank you, Jeremy. I appreciate it. You mentioned inflation a couple of times and it's one of the few times we've heard it so many times on this show. Oil is the biggest inflation number, more than any economic number, because that goes right to everybody's bottom line each week when they have to fill up their tank.

Oil trading, you know, back up near $90/barrel again. There was talk a couple of weeks ago about trading $100 and it went down to $80. I think that's probably the short-term bottom area that we'll have to pierce through for inflation to not rear its head.

I expect oil to be making new highs this week. We'll certainly keep a close look on that. Not what you want to see, but probably have to see. Of course, the other aspect of the market is what's happening with volatility. I know you guys cover volatility a lot, and it means a lot to options traders.

And here we are now at reading, what, six-month highs. And like you said, in the case of oil, it's expected to go up. I guess volatility is only in one direction as well. Yeah, volatility six-month highs recently, probably going to be very volatile going into this earnings season.

You've got Microsoft coming this week, a lot of other chip stocks like Intel. You have oil-related stocks, like we had Schlumberger last week, seems to be fully priced in record corporate earnings, and the stock doesn't go higher. That seems to be fully priced in.

If any of these oil stocks don't come out with good earnings, you might see exaggerated moves to the downside, helping the market lower, which I don't know if is good for anybody. Yeah, I guess it's all about what analysts are thinking.

JN: Tony, we'll leave it there, but thanks for joining us. It's a pleasure to be able to catch up with you again from tastylive. Yeah, let's move on. As Tony was saying, we've got a whole long list of companies to watch out for, some bigger than others, like Microsoft and Amazon. Let's take a look at what we've got on the agenda on the week ahead on the corporate side.

On Monday, we go for Logitech second-quarter earnings, Whirlpool in the United States; we've got numbers coming through there as well, and Philips on third-quarter earnings to kick us off with, first thing Monday morning.

There are a few banks here in the UK reporting earnings. Barclays is the first on the slate on Tuesday on its third-quarter figures. And then we get a whole long list of numbers for companies that trade all sessions on the IT platform.

This means that you can trade them when they release their numbers. General Motors, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Alphabet, Snap. Look at the list. It just gets bigger and bigger and bigger. Google after the bell.

Alphabet is likely to contribute a lot towards what's happening there. Wednesday, Lloyds Banking Group, first-quarter interim management statement, that is. But we'll get an update on what the profit and loss looks like as well. ASOS, the internet bank, internet company, clothing seller. Deutsche Bank, IBM, Meta Platforms, Boeing. Those last three stocks, all-sessions on the IG platform.

Take a look at 26 October, starting off here in the UK with Unilever. Another bank, Standard Chartered. This has about 50-odd percent of its revenue coming through from the Asia-Pacific region, including China.

A number of car makers out this week, Volkswagen. We've got Ford Motor, Intel, Amazon. Again, all three of those are all-session stocks on the IG platform. And rounding off the week, NatWest closes the accounts on bank earnings here in the UK for next week.

But we also get IAG and also Air France-KLM on Friday as well. Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Colgate-Palmolive in the States with some of those companies reporting numbers.

And that wraps up what is a very busy week next week on both the economic and corporate agenda for the week, starting Monday 23 October 2023.