Why Citibank just slashed their price target on AMP
We examine why Citibank analysts remain bearish on AMP’s prospects.
In a note released on Monday, Citibank analysts revealed they had lowered their price target on AMP, citing increased bank provisions and weaker deal flow as the core reasons.
Although AMP has tried to drum-up enthusiasm around its latest transformational strategy in recent times – which aims to make the company into a 'client-led, simpler, growth-oriented business’; if price action is anything to go by, investors remain sceptical.
Since that revamped strategic focus was announced in August of last year, the AMP share price has fallen close to 30%. If the market hasn’t bought into AMP’s latest plan, Citi analysts appear even less convinced, saying that the firm’s ‘earnings profile remains lacklustre (especially including actual rather than normalised investment earnings) and the transition likely remains long and arduous.’
In step with such a view, Citi analysts today made significant revisions to their core earnings per share (EPS) estimates for AMP. The financial firm's FY20 core EPS is now forecast to come in at 9.0 cents, FY21 at 9.9 cents, and FY22 at 11.6 cents.
A lacklustre outlook indeed!
AMP share price: the all-important AMP Life deal
Beyond the earnings outlook, concerns around timing still remain over the much-hyped and once-stalled sale of AMP Life.
In the broad strokes, this is a deal that has been framed as one critical for AMP’s long-term success. Valued at $3.0 billion, the sale of AMP life would see AMP walk away with $2.5 billion in cash as well as a $500 million equity stake in the hopefully soon-to-be Resolution Life-owned AMP Life.
Most recently, AMP noted that the sale was still on track to be completed by 30 June, 2020. Citibank though, appears decisively more sceptical than AMP management, saying:
‘There appears risk that in the current situation, regulators may have other priorities and be unable to complete the necessary work in time for the planned deadline.’
In line with all of this, the investment bank currently has a Sell/High Risk rating and a 12-month price target of $1.40 per share (down from $1.70) on AMP.
Elsewhere, AMP told investor that its client remediation program was tracking according to plan and is currently expected to be fully complete by 2021.
As of 3:46 AEDT, the AMP share price traded around the $1.40 per share mark.
How to trade AMP
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