The Week Ahead
Week commencing 15 December
Chris Beauchamp insight
The final busy week of the year sees delayed US payrolls for November, plus a swathe of purchasing managers indices (PMIs) from around the globe, and rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Of these, the former is expected to follow the Federal Reserve (Fed) and cut rates, while the latter will raise interest rates once again. Meanwhile the ECB is expected to hold steady.
The last sputtering of earnings for the year is seen as Bunzl, WHSmith and Carnival release figures, along with Micron Technology and Nike in the US.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
2am – China retail sales, industrial production (November): sales expected to rise 3.3% and production to rise 5.4%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – Canada inflation (November): previous reading 2.2%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
12.30am – Japan PMI (December, flash): manufacturing activity expected to rise to 49.5, from 48.7, while services to drop to 51.6 from 53.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK employment data: October unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.1% from 5% while average average earnings rise by 4.5% from 4.8%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
8.30am – German PMI (December, flash): manufacturing expected to rise to 48.9 from 48.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK PMI (December, flash): manufacturing forecast to rise to 51.2 from 50.2, and services to rise to 52 from 51.3. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (December): economic sentiment index forecast to fall to 36 from 38.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (NFP) (November): the delayed payroll release is expected o show 10,000 jobs were created in November, while the unemployment rate is forecast to be 4.6%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – US PMI (December, flash): manufacturing activity forecast to fall to 52 from 52.2, and services expected to drop to 53 from 54.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
7am – UK inflation (November): prices forecast to rise 3.4%, down from 3.6%, year-on-year (YoY), and fall 0.1% month-on-month (MoM). Core inflation expected to slow to 3.3% YoY from 3.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
9am – German IFO index (December): expected to rise to 88.5 from 88.1. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 December): stockpiles fell 1.8 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
12pm – BoE rate decision: rates expected to be cut to 3.75%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.15%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US inflation (November), initial jobless claims (w/e 13 December). Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
11.30pm - Japan inflation (November): expected to fall to 2.9% YoY from 3%. Core inflation to fall to 2.7% from 3%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
3am – BoJ rate decision: 25bps hike expected, to 0.75%. Markets to watch: Nikkei 225, JPY crosses
7am – UK retail sales (November): sales forecast to rise to 0.4%, from a 1.1% drop. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (November): forecast to fall 4.8% from a 1.2% rise. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
2am – China retail sales, industrial production (November): sales expected to rise 3.3% and production to rise 5.4%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – Canada inflation (November): previous reading 2.2%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Tuesday
12.30am – Japan PMI (December, flash): manufacturing activity expected to rise to 49.5, from 48.7, while services to drop to 51.6 from 53.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK employment data: October unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.1% from 5% while average average earnings rise by 4.5% from 4.8%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
8.30am – German PMI (December, flash): manufacturing expected to rise to 48.9 from 48.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK PMI (December, flash): manufacturing forecast to rise to 51.2 from 50.2, and services to rise to 52 from 51.3. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (December): economic sentiment index forecast to fall to 36 from 38.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US NFPs (November): the delayed payroll release is expected o show 10,000 jobs were created in November, while the unemployment rate is forecast to be 4.6%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2.45pm – US PMI (December, flash): manufacturing activity forecast to fall to 52 from 52.2, and services expected to drop to 53 from 54.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Wednesday
7am – UK inflation (November): prices forecast to rise 3.4%, down from 3.6%, YoY, and fall 0.1% MoM. Core inflation expected to slow to 3.3% YoY from 3.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
9am – German IFO index (December): expected to rise to 88.5 from 88.1. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 December): stockpiles fell 1.8 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
12pm – BoE rate decision: rates expected to be cut to 3.75%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates expected to be held at 2.15%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US inflation (November), initial jobless claims (w/e 13 December). Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
11.30pm - Japan inflation (November): expected to fall to 2.9% YoY from 3%. Core inflation to fall to 2.7% from 3%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
Friday
3am – BoJ rate decision: 25bps hike expected, to 0.75%. Markets to watch: Nikkei 225, JPY crosses
7am – UK retail sales (November): sales forecast to rise to 0.4%, from a 1.1% drop. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (November): forecast to fall 4.8% from a 1.2% rise. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
Full-year earnings |
Hollywood Bowl |
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| Half/ Quarterly earnings |
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| Trading update |
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Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (18th December):
FTSE 100: United Utilities, Games Workshop, Halma
FTSE 250: Lion Finance, SDCL Energy Efficiency
Index adjustments
|
Monday 15 December |
Tuesday 16 December |
Wednesday 17 December |
Thursday 18 December |
Friday 19 December |
Monday 22 December |
| FTSE 100 | 0.78 | |||||
| Australia 200 | ||||||
| Wall Street | 2.6 | |||||
| US 500 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.41 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.97 | 2.72 | ||||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| China H-Shares | 1.2 | |||||
| Japan 225 | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | ||||||
| South Africa 40 | ||||||
| France 40 | ||||||
| Stoxx 600 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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