Nvidia Q3 earnings report sees muted market reaction as Q4 outlook underwhelms
Nvidia's Q3 2025 earnings report surpassed forecasts, but a lackluster Q4 outlook led to a share price dip, sparking concerns over rising production costs.
Nvidia Q3 2025: modest beat, subdued market reaction
In trading, highly anticipated events often underdeliver, and Nvidia's third-quarter (Q3) 2025 earnings announcement this morning was no exception.
Despite reporting its fifth consecutive earnings beat, Nvidia’s shares fell 5% initially before recovering to close about 2% lower at $143.00 in after-hours trading.
Pre-earnings market expectations
Before the results, the options market anticipated significant volatility, pricing in a 7.8% post-announcement move. This implied a potential swing of approximately $11.50 from Nvidia’s previous close of $145.89.
Based on these expectations, a strong report might have pushed the stock above $157.00, while a weaker outcome could have sent it below $135.00.
Earnings highlights
Let's examine the key figures to understand why the report failed to inspire a large move in either direction.
- Revenue: $35.08 billion vs. $33.16 billion expected
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $0.81 vs. $0.75 expected
- Data centre revenue: $30.8 billion vs. $29.1 billion expected
- Fourth quarter (Q4) revenue outlook: $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%
Nvidia’s Q3 2025 summary
Market reaction
Despite the earnings beat, Nvidia’s Q4 revenue guidance of $37.5 billion only modestly exceeded consensus expectations and fell short of the $41 billion projected by the most optimistic analysts.
Additionally, concerns persist about rising production and engineering costs associated with Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, which could compress profit margins.
CEO commentary
Nvidia’s chief executive officer (CEO), Jensen Huang, commented, 'The age of artificial intelligence (AI) is in full swing, driving a global transition to Nvidia computing.'
The question remains whether investors will embrace this long-term vision or remain cautious due to concerns about growth and margins.
Nvidia's outlook
Nvidia technical analysis
After its astonishing rally in 2024, Nvidia’s share price hit a fresh record high of $149.77 two weeks ago before a modest pullback to Monday's low of $137.15.
We expect dips in Nvidia’s share price to be well supported initially near $130.00 before medium-term support at $112 - $110. The latter support band comes from the uptrend from the January $47.32 low, reinforced by the 200-day moving average at $110.00.
Providing both support levels mentioned above hold on a sustained basis, the uptrend in Nvidia's share price is expected to resume, leading to a break of $150.00 before a move towards $165.00.
Nvidia daily chart
- Source: TradingView. Figures are as of 21 November 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be considered as containing financial product advice or financial product recommendations.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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